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Fantasy Equations: Ray Rice


While fantasy football magazines and websites brush across the Baltimore Ravens offense with a brief allusion to maturation and possible sophomore jinx of Joe Flacco, I have monitored an under-looked development. Ray Rice has been running prmarily with the first team offense in training camp. Last year’s loose incumbent, Willis McGahee, has already somewhat abdicated his position as Ravens starting tailback and Rice is taking it all in stride. I guarantee you Rice is a player that people are not considering before the 6th or 7th rounds in your draft and the reasons that you should are obvious.

He’s going to be running behind a brutish line that is fully accounted for in camp and ready to make headway in the tough AFC North. You start with left tackle Jared Gaither, a mauler in the mold of Jason Peters who is also one of the most effective point of attack run blockers in the AFC. Then you move to right tackle Micheal Oher, who is a phenomenal package of strength and speed, which is heaven sent for any running game. After that you add a young Ben Grubbs and veteran Matt Birk in the interior line and you have built a pretty effective defensive line plow. The beneficiary of which is Rice.

Another main player in this is offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who is running an offense now that looks eerily similar to the one he ran in 2007 while in Miami. The Dolphins touted an offense with an anemic passing game that early in the season dumped a devastatingly heavy load on then sleeper Ronnie Brown. Brown’s seven game total of 602 yards rushing, 389 yards receiving, and five touchdowns made him a fantasy stud. He eventually succumbed to a knee injury which resulted in his stat line swimming below the radar.

Rice should routinely last until the 7th or 8th rounds of drafts because of (a) the fact that he plays in Baltimore and people are afraid of other backs stealing carries and (b) his situation just hasn’t been thoroughly examined. To these things I say: it’s 2009, get used to losing carries to other backs and do your homework. There are suitable backs in good situations that might not strike fear in the heart of your opponent week one, but will have your league oozing of envy before the trade deadline. I completely understand fears of Running Back By Committe issues, but you should reserve those feelings  for the first three rounds of your draft. In the mid rounds, you should be looking for talent and I think Rice has it to spare.

If you are picking late in the first round of drafts, splurge on receiver talent early and complete your backfield late. Or, be sure to add Ray for depth, so you are not running around trying to carry McGahee and fullback Le’Ron McClain as well. Just get this guy on your team and monitor his development.

In this equation, Oher in camp + Gaither’s development = Rice in your starting lineup.

En-joy!

Categories: True Grit
  1. August 5th, 2009 at 16:38 | #1

    Le’Ron McClain…Fullback…LOL.

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